Guides ยท Math
Probability Intuition Basics
Build intuition for randomness
This guide builds practical probability intuition: understand base rates, independence, conditional probability, and expected value, and learn common traps like the gambler?s fallacy.
- probability
- base rates
- expected value
- independence
- randomness
Start with base rates
Consider how common an event is before focusing on specific evidence.
Independence vs dependence
Know when events do not affect each other (coin flips) versus when they do (sampling without replacement).
Conditional probability
Update beliefs with new evidence; be clear about the condition.
Expected value
Use expected value to compare choices under uncertainty, not just best-case outcomes.